Question has netherlands joined the German confederation? They are a rump state are they not.
The New Order: A Successful Selim III
- Thread starter Vinization
- Start date
Finland is quite possible as Emperor will potentially seek some sort of prize with other European powers probably not being able to stop him. It's quite probable that happens during Polish uprisings. Also to note, Sweden reformed its bureaucracy after loss of Finland to counter eastern threat , without the loss Sweden still stays among most corrupt countries in Europe.
Trade with China and Japan? Yes. But colonization of Alaska, Siberia and expansion in China will probably seek a better infrastructure, but if Russia reforms earlier it better colonization of Siberia is possible.
Regarding China? I believe Russia will more, or less achieve similar results to otl with maybe managing to grab Manchuria and maybe Korea , but Japan was already established in Hokkaido.
Central Asia on second hand is valid target. But really i believe Russia will be focused on internal reforms for now.
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I agree, we'll most likely see reforms happening first before any foreign adventurism(outside of expansion into the "backwards" Central Asia and colonizing of Siberia)
This is I think the only TL I've ever seen where Napoleon decided he couldn't win in the end and just agreed to a workable peace treaty. Usually, he either wins or fights to the bitter end, but it feels more historical that he'd agree to a peace deal. He only dug in when he thought he could pull off the impossible and when he realized he couldn't the allies weren't going to give up.
Part 16: Carrots, Sticks and Daggers
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Part 16: Carrots, Sticks and Daggers
Though the Ottoman and rebel armies stayed put during the winter of 1816-1817, neither side wanting to risk marching through the mountain chains that dominated Greece's terrain while they were full of snow, the naval front saw plenty of activity. Unincumbered by the hurdles faced by their land counterparts, vessels flying the crescent and the myriad battle flags of the Greek rebellion manouvered and clashed all over the Aegean Sea, the gulf in the number of hulls and guns between them even more glaring than the one between the armies. While the Ottoman navy could count on a variety of true warships of all sizes, from mighty three decked ships of the line to smaller corvettes and brigs, the rebels had a mishmash of merchant ships donated to them by wealthy Greek traders and foreign philhellenes (1).
But although their vessels were unsuited for conventional warfare, the rebels had an abundance of experienced sailors due to their homeland's strong naval tradition, which dated from Antiquity. Because of this, and the abundance of potential hiding spots for their ships thanks to the abundance of islands, gulfs and other noteworthy geographic features dotting the Aegean Sea, they were able to wage the naval equivalent of guerrilla warfare through the use of fireships. The Ottoman navy, meanwhile, lacked experience (the naval theater of the Russo-Turkish War of 1808-1809 was fought mostly by the British) and, as a consequence of not being reformed as thoroughly as the army, had major issues regarding the competence of many of its officers.
Part 16: Carrots, Sticks and Daggers
Though the Ottoman and rebel armies stayed put during the winter of 1816-1817, neither side wanting to risk marching through the mountain chains that dominated Greece's terrain while they were full of snow, the naval front saw plenty of activity. Unincumbered by the hurdles faced by their land counterparts, vessels flying the crescent and the myriad battle flags of the Greek rebellion manouvered and clashed all over the Aegean Sea, the gulf in the number of hulls and guns between them even more glaring than the one between the armies. While the Ottoman navy could count on a variety of true warships of all sizes, from mighty three decked ships of the line to smaller corvettes and brigs, the rebels had a mishmash of merchant ships donated to them by wealthy Greek traders and foreign philhellenes (1).
But although their vessels were unsuited for conventional warfare, the rebels had an abundance of experienced sailors due to their homeland's strong naval tradition, which dated from Antiquity. Because of this, and the abundance of potential hiding spots for their ships thanks to the abundance of islands, gulfs and other noteworthy geographic features dotting the Aegean Sea, they were able to wage the naval equivalent of guerrilla warfare through the use of fireships. The Ottoman navy, meanwhile, lacked experience (the naval theater of the Russo-Turkish War of 1808-1809 was fought mostly by the British) and, as a consequence of not being reformed as thoroughly as the army, had major issues regarding the competence of many of its officers.
A rebel fireship striking an Ottoman frigate.
The battle that showed everyone the weakness the Sublime Porte's naval arm was fought off the coast of the island of Salamis, in the Saronic Gulf, on December 18 1817. That day, an Ottoman convoy of 43 ships carrying troops and supplies meant to break the siege of the Acropolis was scattered by a much smaller Greek fleet of 27 vessels. Several transports ran aground in their panicked attempt to get away from the rebel fireships, the food, gunpowder and munitions meant for the Acropolis' defenders falling into the hands of the besiegers. Having watched the whole disaster unfold from their vantage point 150 meters above sea level, and knowing this was their last chance of being saved, the Acropolis' garrison surrendered a few hours later.
The Battle of Salamis was an immense victory for the revolutionary cause, not least because of its symbolism, and the fall of the Acropolis a welcome distraction from their ongoing failure to take Tripolitsa. Beneath all the public celebrations in Argos, however, tensions simmered beneath the surface. The Greek rebellion's leaders were a motley collection of merchants, landowners, intellectuals and warlords united only by their mutual hatred of the Sublime Porte and the wish to create an independent Greece - what said Greece would look like and who would govern it was something that dominated the agenda of Rigas Feraios, the man given the unenviable task of being the provisional government's leader, almost as much as managing the war against Constantinople (2).
Though respected by many thanks to his role in founding the Filiki Eteria, Feraios' admiration of France and use of Western clothing (a logical consequence of him living there for almost twenty years) earned him the distrust of the Greek military leaders, such as Petros Mavromichalis, Athanasios Diakos and Theodoros Kolokotronis. This distrust worsened due to fierce regional divisions between the revolutionaries (who were, in general, split between those who were born in the Aegean Islands, central Greece and the Peloponnese), as well as disputes over money and administrative posts. With the onset of winter suspending almost all land operations against the Ottomans for the time being, the generals were free to engage in all sorts of intrigue.
It didn't take long before a civil war broke out, with Kolokotronis forcing the legislature to dismiss the provisional government on January 4 1817. Feraios' supporters fled Argos, set up a new government in Corinth, and two weeks of fighting ensued before an agreement was secured (3). Peace had returned to the revolutionary camp, but Kolokotronis wouldn't be there to see it - he was murdered by an angry Argive soldier on January 7, just three days after his coup (4).
As one of the few rebel leaders with genuine military experience, Kolokotronis' assassination was a major setback for them.
As the rebels fought among themselves, Hurshid Pasha finally captured Yanina, his men storming its castle after almost six months of siege and executing Ali Pasha. Sending the ayan's severed head to Constantinople as proof of his success (5), Hurshid spent the rest of winter deliberating on how to bring the revolutionaries to heel once and for all. He began to exchange letters with Odysseas Androutsos, a Greek commander based in Attica who had fallen out with the provisional government and now sought to defect to the Sublime Porte's side in exchange for an amnesty. Androutsos received a firman guaranteeing just that after a few weeks of correspondence, and he promptly snuck out of Athens by ship. He soon found himself in Larissa, where he began to advise Hurshid on the best methods to bring Greece back under the sultan's sway (6).
The strategy the Ottoman high command came up with during the winter was a two pronged attack against the territories controlled by the rebels, so as to force them to divide their troops. Hurshid would strike from the east, leading 27.000 men into Boeotia, march over the Isthmus of Corinth and relieve Tripolitsa with all due haste. While this went on, another, slightly smaller army of 24.000 soldiers would lay siege to the city of Missolonghi, epicenter of the rebellion in western Greece, then cross the Gulf of Patras under the navy's protection and land on the Peloponnese's western coast. Both armies were made up of battle-hardened veterans from the last wars the empire took part in - no expenses were spared, and no punches would be pulled.
To the surprise of nobody, grand vizier Muhammad Ali Pasha took an active role in the discussions about the upcoming campaign, seeking to undermine Hurshid's position and bolster that of his son Ibrahim, now a respected figure thanks to his victory over the Saudis at Diriyah. Though he failed to convince Selim III to dismiss Hurshid from his position, he nevertheless secured Ibrahim's appointment as commander of the western army, giving him a precious chance to earn more glory for himself and his family.
The onset of spring spurred the Ottoman troops into action, the thaw opening the way for what would be their largest military operation in Greece since the last war with Venice a century before. Hurshid Pasha's advance into Boeotia felt less like an attack and more like a flood, since no rebel force dared to fight him and the settlements in the path of his army surrendered in droves. The lack of resistance to his march, combined with the advice given to him by Odysseas Androutsos (now one of his top lieutenants and an invaluable liaison between him and the Greek communities), made Hurshid an exceptionally benevolent general by Ottoman standards, granting pardon after pardon so long as the people requesting them surrendered peacefully.
Having begun his military career as a member of Ali Pasha's army, Odysseas Androutsos switched sides twice: first to the Filiki Eteria, then the sultan.
Despite fighting Turks, Albanians and fellow Greeks over the course of his life, he is still celebrated as a hero by all three peoples.
His soldiers recaptured Corinth, again without firing a shot, on March 27 1817. After summoning a war council to iron out the last details of his army's next moves, Hurshid Pasha made preparations for his army to enter the Peloponnese and break the siege of Tripolitsa once and for all. They couldn't reach its intended destination soon enough: though Tripolitsa's resistance was nothing short of extraordinary at this point, the ravages brought about by nine months of siege reduced the city's defenders to a fraction of their original strength. Those still fit to fight survived off horse meat, while the citizens and refugees ate rats and dogs. Had it not been for the rebels' infighting and Kolokotronis' murder, it's likely Tripolitsa would've fallen during the winter.
Hurshid's army entered the Argolis on April 2, and it was from here onward that they finally encountered some resistance. Although the rebel government (or what was left of it after their civil war) hurriedly evacuated Argos without a fight, its citadel was still manned by a garrison of some 700 troops led by Demetrios Ypsilantis. He and his men fought tenaciously for ten days straight, and while their fate was sealed the moment the fighting began (the odds against them were too great), they delayed the Ottoman advance long enough for guerrillas to start attacking their supply lines, taking advantage of the defiles that connected the army to its main logistical base at Corinth, while other groups burned crops and destroyed water wells. With no hope of fighting Hurshid's soldiers head on, the rebels' only hope of victory was to make their lives so hellish they would have no choice but to leave.
But their efforts were all for nought, since the Ottomans captured the port of Nafplio soon after the fall of Argos. This allowed them to be resupplied by sea rather than land, greatly diminishing the logistical burden of keeping almost thirty thousand men well fed, clothed and with enough ammunition. The path to Tripolitsa was open, and the siege was finally brought to an end on April 22. The army paraded through Tripolitsa's streets in triumph, Hurshid and his officers leading the way.
The situation in Aetolia couldn't be more different.
A depiction of the siege of Missolonghi.
As one of the first major cities outside the Peloponnese to join the Greek rebellion, and owing to its strategic location on the mouth of the Gulf of Patras, continued control of Missolonghi was of the utmost importance if the rebels were to succeed in their dream of creating an independent Greece. The city's already strong natural defenses (marshy ground on its landward side and a lagoon that protected it from naval attacks) were joined by a network of trenches and ramparts as elaborate as the rebel government could afford. Missolonghi's proximity to the Ionian Islands also made it a hotspot for philhellenes, many of whom veterans of the Napoleonic Wars, who shared knowledge of the various sieges they themselves went through to the garrison.
To say this made Missolonghi a tough nut to crack was an understatement, as Ibrahim Pasha found out. Upon approaching its outskirts on March 15, he ordered his troops to build a mound of earth and rubble to provide a vantage point for the artillery to rain down fire on the city's defenders. Said mound was blown sky high by a mine a few days before its completion, killing hundreds of Ottoman soldiers and forcing Ibrahim to change tactics. The besiegers tried to give the rebels a taste of their own medicine by blowing up a mine beneath their fortifications on March 29, but they were repulsed before they could force their way into the city. With the navy unable to blockade Missolonghi due to the constant threat of rebel fireships, it became clear the siege would be a lengthy affair, one whose developments would be watched by all of Europe.
After a few more days of inconclusive clashes, a new mound was built by the Ottomans on April 7, and this time they kept it safe from Greek sappers. The besiegers moved as many heavy guns as they could to it, after which they subjected Missolonghi to a nonstop barrage of cannon and mortar fire: as many as 8.000 cannonballs and mortar shells were fired in just three days, obliterating entire neighborhoods in the process. The bombardment was, supposedly, so intense the fires and explosions it caused could be seen from the island of Kefalonia, several dozen kilometers away. Whether an exaggeration or not, stories like this should give an idea of how hellish conditions were for the defenders, who, despite launching one sortie after another, failed to put a stop to their city's gradual and deliberate destruction.
But despite the overwhelming, choking smell of blood, sweat, gunpowder and ash, the garrison kept repulsing assault after assault for weeks, any breaches in their defenses plugged and then fixed with the help of those who couldn't fight in the front lines. Rebel casualties were high, but so were the Ottomans': Missolonghi's marshy surroundings were fertile ground for all sorts of diseases, a problem exacerbated by terrible sanitary conditions in their camps. Thousands of imperial soldiers fell sick, further decreasing the strength of their assaults, each failure hurting their morale further.
It wasn't until news of the fall of Argos and the relief of Tripolitsa reached the combatants that the situation began to turn around in the besiegers' favor. The rebel garrison, realizing their cause was hopeless in the long term now that the heartland of their revolution was under attack, shifted their focus from holding Missolonghi no matter what to evacuating as many civilians as possible by ship while they still could (7). The Ottomans, meanwhile, were reinforced with the arrival of new artillery pieces detached from Hurshid Pasha's army, as well as, supposedly, a message written by Hurshid himself saying Ibrahim needed these guns far more than he did - an immense humiliation to the grand vizier's son.
Whether the story in question is true is irrelevant. What is relevant is that, with the rebels making preparations for a final stand and the Ottomans' reinforcements, the latter finally secured a foothold in Missolonghi's defenses on April 30. Even then, it took two more days of fighting for them to break into the city, and it wasn't until May 5 that the last rebel forces, some 250 men, were killed - by suicide rather than enemy action, since they found it preferable to blow themselves up with their gunpowder magazine rather than be captured. After one and a half months of siege, Missolonghi and its surroundings were finally silent. The city, once a thriving seaport, was now nothing more than a pile of ash and rubble.
With the civilians having been evacuated to the Ionian Islands and nothing worth looting left, Ibrahim and his men took out their frustration on the corpses of their enemies, many of which were decomposing for weeks. A tower housing the skulls of almost 1.000 rebel soldiers was built on Ibrahim's orders, the grim structure intended to instill fear into the hearts of anyone who thought of rebelling against the Sublime Porte. In reality, all it did was inspire resentment against the Ottoman state, not just among the locals, but many foreigners (8).
During its years of existence, the Skull Tower was seen as the physical embodiment of Ottoman oppression.
Its mere presence poisoned relations between Constantinople and its Greek subjects for years to come.
The succession of disasters that befell the rebels in continental Greece affected their performance in the Aegean theater, despite the weakness of the Ottoman navy being well known after the Battle of Salamis. Greek communities still under Ottoman rule got cold feet at the idea of joining the rebellion when its impending failure was visible to all. The best example of this was the invasion of Chios, where a group of several hundred revolutionaries from Samos tried to take over the island in question in late April. The locals chose to join forces with the Ottoman garrison rather than their fellow Greeks, chasing the rebels back into their ships (9). Some rebel naval squadrons, knowing an independent Greece was no longer plausible, became pirates, attacking merchant ships and vessels carrying pilgrims making the Hajj. This, more so than the defeat at Salamis, was an intolerable insult to the Sublime Porte's naval capabilities, since it struck at one of the pillars of its legitimacy among its Muslim inhabitants.
Back in the mainland, the surrender of Athens and the rest of Attica in early May meant the rebels no longer had any noteworthy footholds outside the Peloponnese. With the conventional war all but over, it was time for the most brutal, yet ironically the least documented, stage of the Greek rebellion: its final suppression. The last rebel armies still standing fled to the mountains and became guerrilla bands, too nimble to be caught by conventional means. Unable to catch their enemy in the open and fight a decisive battle, Hurshid and Ibrahim had to think a way to force the rebels out of their hiding spots.
The solution the two commanders came up with was as barbaric as it was effective: since they couldn't catch the guerrillas directly, they'd starve them out by burning every single square centimeter of arable land within the rebels' reach. No amnesty was even considered for these last bitter enders and the people who had the misfortune of living close to them (10). The fact the lowlands were to be spared was little consolation for them - most of the Peloponnese was made up of mountain chains. From June until October 1817, a story repeated itself all over the peninsula: Ottoman raiding parties, each a few hundred strong, sallied out from the cities under their control (Patras, Tripolitsa, Argos, etc) and laid waste to every village they found, their sole reason being the fact said villages could be used as bases for the rebels. Harvests were burned, wells broken, granaries plundered, farm animals carried away or slaughtered on the spot.
As for the inhabitants of those villages, the lucky ones fled or were deported to either the lowlands or the Ionian Islands. More were killed or enslaved by the raiders, and more still simply starved to death after being robbed of all the food they had. The total number of people who died in the raids and the subsequent famine is still a mystery, with most estimates ranging from 20 to 70.000 or more: most documents regarding the attacks and the damage they caused were destroyed in the coming decades, making it impossible for an accurate assessment to be made.
One region the raids hit particularly hard was the Mani Peninsula, on the southernmost tip of the Peloponnese. Well known for its fiercely protected autonomy and its status as a refuge for klephts and other anti-Ottoman dissidents, Mani's subjugation was seen as a matter of the utmost priority by Hurshid Pasha. What few documents survived to this day indicate the general sought nothing less than the complete genocide of the Maniot people, a goal he was so intent on carrying out he oversaw many raids personally. And it was that dedication to accomplishing this hideous goal that led to his demise: on September 14 1817, near what is now the village of Karinia, a group of guerrillas ambushed Hurshid and separated him from his men. Though he was rescued, the general had been mortally wounded, and died a few hours later.
The raids in Mani stopped not long after, but much damage had already been done.
"The exile of the Maniots", a painting depicting a group of Maniots leaving their homeland by sea (11).
Much like the inhabitants of Missolonghi and other Greeks who suffered due to the war, many Maniots found it safer to start new lives abroad than remain under Ottoman rule.
The Greek rebellion was finally declared over on October 28 1817. Despite lasting only a little over a year, the war took an enormous human toll in Greece, less because of the pitched battles and more due to all the plundering, famine, riots and massacres. It took on an ethnoreligious character as soon as it began, with Muslims and Jews being targeted by the rebels while Christian Greeks suffered at the hands of their neighbors and the Ottoman authorities.
Despite having won the war on paper, the Sublime Porte had little reason to celebrate: the mere fact the situation got so bad in the first place made it clear the Ottoman state still had serious flaws, despite the success of the New Order and its reforms. The only person who truly gained something from the whole mess was Muhammad Ali Pasha: with Hurshid out of the way, he no longer had any real challengers for the title of grand vizier, and he was free to work on ensuring Ibrahim succeeded him.
Liberals throughout Europe were shocked and outraged that their countries' governments did nothing to assist the Greek rebels. Said governments just stood and watched, even as the Ottoman military reduced Missolonghi to rubble, laid waste to many islands in the Aegean Sea (killing and enslaving thousands of people in the process (12)) and turned much of the Peloponnese into ash. They would, eventually, act on those feelings.
For now, all they could do was gather strength bide their time.
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Notes:
(1) This is OTL. The Greek fireships were so dangerous the Ottomans weren't able to resupply their last holdouts in the Peloponnese by sea.
(2) IOTL the first guy the Greek rebels chose to lead their nascent state was Alexandros Mavrokordatos. Since Feraios worked as a bureaucrat in Wallachia before he left for Austria, I think he'd be a plausible option to lead the provisional government had he survived.
(3) The Greeks went through two civil wars IOTL. That the Ottomans still had to call for help from Egypt speaks volumes about how weak their military was at that time.
(4) Kolokotronis' son was murdered during the second Greek civil war IOTL, so his life was definitely in danger at some point. Add in some extra bitterness due to him failing to take Tripolitsa, and one random guy decides to take matters into his own hands.
(5) This happened IOTL.
(6) Androutsos tried to defect to the Ottomans IOTL, but he was caught and executed in Athens.
(7) According to wikipedia article on the third siege of Missolonghi, the garrison actually evacuated many civilians early on, but they eventually got overconfident and let them come back. With the Egyptian navy capturing the lagoon during the siege's last stage, the civilians had nowhere to run and were subjected to all sorts of atrocities once the city fell.
(8) A skull tower was built in Nis IOTL due to the First Serbian Uprising. The Ottomans dismantled it later, only for the Serbs to rebuild it once they gained control of Nis.
(9) Thus averting the Chios massacre.
(10) The Ottoman forces were pretty trigger happy when it came to massacring civilians IOTL, so they're definitely capable of pulling something like this. As for why they don't employ the approach they used in Boeotia and Attica (amnesties and peaceful surrenders), they don't think it'll work in the Peloponnese due to its longtime tradition of anti-Ottoman sentiment, so they don't bother trying.
(11) This painting actually depicts survivors of the destruction of Psara.
(12) While the Chios massacre is the most famous case, there were other atrocities all over the Aegean Sea, such as at Psara and Samothrace.
Despite having won the war on paper, the Sublime Porte had little reason to celebrate: the mere fact the situation got so bad in the first place made it clear the Ottoman state still had serious flaws, despite the success of the New Order and its reforms. The only person who truly gained something from the whole mess was Muhammad Ali Pasha: with Hurshid out of the way, he no longer had any real challengers for the title of grand vizier, and he was free to work on ensuring Ibrahim succeeded him.
Liberals throughout Europe were shocked and outraged that their countries' governments did nothing to assist the Greek rebels. Said governments just stood and watched, even as the Ottoman military reduced Missolonghi to rubble, laid waste to many islands in the Aegean Sea (killing and enslaving thousands of people in the process (12)) and turned much of the Peloponnese into ash. They would, eventually, act on those feelings.
For now, all they could do was gather strength bide their time.
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Notes:
(1) This is OTL. The Greek fireships were so dangerous the Ottomans weren't able to resupply their last holdouts in the Peloponnese by sea.
(2) IOTL the first guy the Greek rebels chose to lead their nascent state was Alexandros Mavrokordatos. Since Feraios worked as a bureaucrat in Wallachia before he left for Austria, I think he'd be a plausible option to lead the provisional government had he survived.
(3) The Greeks went through two civil wars IOTL. That the Ottomans still had to call for help from Egypt speaks volumes about how weak their military was at that time.
(4) Kolokotronis' son was murdered during the second Greek civil war IOTL, so his life was definitely in danger at some point. Add in some extra bitterness due to him failing to take Tripolitsa, and one random guy decides to take matters into his own hands.
(5) This happened IOTL.
(6) Androutsos tried to defect to the Ottomans IOTL, but he was caught and executed in Athens.
(7) According to wikipedia article on the third siege of Missolonghi, the garrison actually evacuated many civilians early on, but they eventually got overconfident and let them come back. With the Egyptian navy capturing the lagoon during the siege's last stage, the civilians had nowhere to run and were subjected to all sorts of atrocities once the city fell.
(8) A skull tower was built in Nis IOTL due to the First Serbian Uprising. The Ottomans dismantled it later, only for the Serbs to rebuild it once they gained control of Nis.
(9) Thus averting the Chios massacre.
(10) The Ottoman forces were pretty trigger happy when it came to massacring civilians IOTL, so they're definitely capable of pulling something like this. As for why they don't employ the approach they used in Boeotia and Attica (amnesties and peaceful surrenders), they don't think it'll work in the Peloponnese due to its longtime tradition of anti-Ottoman sentiment, so they don't bother trying.
(11) This painting actually depicts survivors of the destruction of Psara.
(12) While the Chios massacre is the most famous case, there were other atrocities all over the Aegean Sea, such as at Psara and Samothrace.
It seems ottoman navy is going to get reformed. I don't think it will have any supporters for its current form.
Mahmud should be a huge supporter of the navy and modernization.
So the Ottomans won a pyrrhic victory it seems and are the target of even more antipathy of the rest of Europe, something that doesn't bode well for them in case Russia or the Austrians decide they will try something.
It's arguable tbh, they do manage to keep Greece but the territory is wrecked, they have gotten the enmity of the locals, the place will take decades to recover and make money instead of needing to have money poured into it and their reputation amongst the Europeans is in the shitter, which will prove to be a bad thing if/when the Russians and Austrians decide to invade and yank another bit of their territory.
The devastation and ensuing resentment varies by region. Attica and Boeotia were treated relatively well so anti-Ottoman sentiment there is weaker, while the opposite is true for Aetolia and the Peloponnese. Also, no Chios massacre means the island continues to prosper instead of being obliterated.
As for Europe, fewer massacres and no execution of the patriarch of Constantinople means only the liberals are really angry at the Ottomans. They would've intervened otherwise, just like IOTL. Lastly, Austria and the Sublime Porte are best buds, while Russia isn't interested in tangling with the latter for the time being. By the time they're willing to, only a few will still remember what went on in Greece, and fewer still will care about it.
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I agree, the biggest L here is that the Ottoman Sultans are the southern equivalent of the Czars as far as European Western liberals are concerned for the next half century at a minimum. The Ottomans are liable to take an L of their own as a result if ex. Britain or France are governed by people ideologically disgusted with them in a moment of weakness. But then, they're yet another ancient autocracy amidst the many of Eastern, Central and Southern Europe. Yes, the Muslim ones, but they blend in with the crowd so much better than OTL where they were falling apart with Europeans having to do much of anything in the early 19th century.
Greek independence after such a brutal crushing is liable to both die down hard in the minds of the general populace as being feasible but continue to fester in the hearts of the disenchanted for the next few generations. Presumably the Ottomans can only do better from here than OTL as far as reform goes with all the political capital they have to work with and the end of the capitulations. Given that I imagine economic reform is imminent and that Greeks will be co-opted first and most effectively into TTL's equivalent of Ottomanism
Greeks are already important traders between the Ottomans and Europe, and for trade between the Aegean and the Levant. I imagine their domination of the presumably ever expanding shipping industry of the empire is imminent and along with it the labor market to build, maintain, and man these ships. Given the inherent interconnectivity between shipping, trade, business, and power projection I imagine the Greeks will ultimately be fine long-term within the Empire.
This is a strong reach, but it's fun to think that there's still a window of opportunity here where European high society will continue to place high value on the Greek language, albeit not what's spoken at this time by the Greeks themselves, as a point of prestige. Especially in the face of their ideological defeat here, the prestige of the Greek language could end up hardening into systemic ideological support built into European liberalism. Speaking Greek continues to be a flex well into the late 19th century among conservative monarchists(Classic Greek) to lord superiority over their ideological opponents, meanwhile hardened Liberals properly mingling with the Greek independence cause more directly unintentionally help develop the start of 'Business Greek' as a midway between Classical and Demotic Greek, albeit arrived at far more organically than OTL. A stream of Greek political and economic exiles then latch on to these sociopolitical trends and reinforce this phenomenon for their economic security, and later these communities leverage this quirk of society to become locally wealthy through importing goods to their countries of exile from the Empire.
If the Ottoman Empire dips its toes into the right export driven economic strategies, Greek has potential to become a significant language of international trade and business to bridge the cultural-political bridge between the OE and the wealthy ideologically liberal businessmen of the West that will soon gain increasing political power in Western Europe and threaten to in the rest of Europe. Kind of like the trend of businessmen rushing to learn Japanese and then Chinese based on what they thought would make them wealthiest. Except that not only is it maybe true, but it'll also make you look more cultured in your socialite circles because all parties across the political aisle think speaking Greek is a status symbol. And then Ottoman high society says fuck it we ball too😂
It's a very optimistic scenario I'll admit, but not a bad consolation prize
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Why is this the case ITTL?
OTL Austria was frothing at the mouth to tear off Bosnia.
That’s was because they had lost their influence in Germany to Prussia’s unification campaign, and their Italian Territories and vassals to the Savoys. The Balkans were the only place they could expand their empire and its sphere of influence in hope of arresting their own decline. Not to mention doing so was popular among its Slavic and Hungarian populations and kept Russia, Serbia, Romania, and other Balkan states content with Vienna.
At the moment the Habsburg Empire is still controlled by a conservative Austria who is focused on the Italian and German states, and will not be swayed by the Anti-Ottoman sentiments of there subjects. Not with Napoleon in France and his brother-in-law in Russia.
OTL even before French revolution Austria wasn't enthusiastic about the wars with Ottoman Empire and only joined Catherine the Great in her wars to balance Russian gains. Emperor at the time actually wanted to focus on Germany/HRE
After Napoleonic wars sentiment was the same and Austria had actually preferred for various Balkan ethnicities to remain under Ottomans, or to join Austria(For example Austria was actually advising Russian Tsar not to intervene in Greek revolution). Only after it became obvious that Ottomans cannot govern their Christian subjects and Austria lost its influence in Italy and Germany did Austria decide to expand at the expense of the Ottomans.
With Ottomans strong enough to govern Balkans and resist Russia Austria probably feels no need to expand there. Even more so given that their alliance with Russia was broken by Alexander in favor of France in Napoleonic wars.
If anything Austria is probably a lot closer to the British in order to contain France (similar to the situation before diplomatic revolution).
Regarding Ottomans, Austria probably sees them as a Chek on Russian expansion.
The British, Austrians, ottomans have to kinda remain aligned now. France is simply too powerful, no one can afford the coalition breaking as no one can match France. Thanks to Austria push for their deal France got land and time to recover so. Austria it kinda forced to need ottomans on side. France will have recovered by any potential future war, and if said war happens people will blame Austria for the coalition weakness as they gave France all lands west of the rhine.
I don't think war is likely to happen tbh, France has gotten their achieved borders and have Russia as a powerful ally in the East, Napoleon and his successor would be looking inward towards reforms and rebuilding the economy as well not to mention rebuilding the navy and doing colonial expansion, Brits are likely to fight them out in the sea for influence and colonial control so Europe will be saved from war for the moment
They would still have had the Enmity of the Greeks and the loss in reputation in Europe if they lost.
The event showed every would be rebel the coast of a failed rebellion and it showed to ottomans what to do and not do during a rebellion.
honestly i don't think so Napoleon has proven france can achieve anyhting by force. The idea france somehow lost all european territorial expansion seems foolish if anything it showed they take almost all of europe. If any issue happens on the continent we'll invade you and know everyone knows its true. Rebuilding for france doesn't take along give them 5 years and they will be fine. Again coalition has to keep france checked If france foreign expansion is not checked its just going to translate to mainland france growing stronger, coalition it just sigining death warrants for later. After all why shouldn't france not have polish ally? Or dominate italy? Hell an argument can be made that france is the true leader of the germans now. They got the rhine austria sold them off and allowed those french aligned german states to exist, saxony, and south germans. French goals have simply changed from west of the rhine to east of the rhine now.