PC: Austrian Belgium

[vn6]

Is it possible that Austrians decide they want Belgium (Austrian Netherlands) back at the Congress of Vienna and keep everything they got OTL (excluding minor border corrections)?

Can they get Russia support the idea by e.g. not demanding Tarnopol back or letting Russia annex Cracow? Would other powers object? Prussia probably would but I don't see Britain having a big problem with this. Quite the contrary, France would be better contained with two great powers on its border instead of just Prussia.

What do you think?

 

[Lils <3]

Two biggest problems are making the Austrians even care about getting a small, hard to defend, and rebellious territory across the continent back. I can't see much reason they'd want it at all, let alone want it as a buffer against France, which would mean they'd be obligated to defend it, or just abandon it again, which beats the point of them wanting it in the first place.
Second problem is that its hard to actually enforce and govern. In the late 1700s Belgian rebels, backed by Prussia and the Dutch overthrew the Austrian government and set up their own independent state, which was eventually crushed by the Austrians. Its obviously not impossible to defend it from rebels, but it makes the Southern Netherlands far weaker and unstable, which sorta beats the point of it being a buffer state against France.
Its certainly not impossible to imagine, but I can't see much reason for it, and I can't see it lasting long, unless the Austrians work something out with the locals and Belgium becomes some kind of semi independent state under Habsburg protection, but I don't imagine that'd be popular after the Austrians just put down a rebellion and, the Austrians still probably wouldn't want the burden.

 

[vn6]

Two biggest problems are making the Austrians even care about getting a small, hard to defend, and rebellious territory across the continent back. I can't see much reason they'd want it at all, let alone want it as a buffer against France, which would mean they'd be obligated to defend it, or just abandon it again, which beats the point of them wanting it in the first place.
Second problem is that its hard to actually enforce and govern. In the late 1700s Belgian rebels, backed by Prussia and the Dutch overthrew the Austrian government and set up their own independent state, which was eventually crushed by the Austrians. Its obviously not impossible to defend it from rebels, but it makes the Southern Netherlands far weaker and unstable, which sorta beats the point of it being a buffer state against France.
Its certainly not impossible to imagine, but I can't see much reason for it, and I can't see it lasting long, unless the Austrians work something out with the locals and Belgium becomes some kind of semi independent state under Habsburg protection, but I don't imagine that'd be popular after the Austrians just put down a rebellion and, the Austrians still probably wouldn't want the burden.

Belgium might be rebellious but AFAIK the rebellion happened primarily because Joseph II tried to implement German language in the administration. If Habsburgs don't make the same mistake, then it might not be that bad.

On the other hand Belgium is very rich so I definitely can are the reasons why they might want it (as well as the reasons why they didn't want it OTL).

Big question is if they can get it without losing significant lands elsewhere. What do you think about it?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Big question is if they can get it without losing significant lands elsewhere. What do you think about it?

There is no other place to take away land from the Habsburgs than Germany, they got nothing out of Poland and no GP truly cared about what happens with Italy so Prussia would use the Austrians getting the Austrian Netherlands to get more of Westphalia and try to eat more of Saxony but I don't see them gaining much more than IOTL.

 

[vn6]

There is no other place to take away land from the Habsburgs than Germany, they got nothing out of Poland and no GP truly cared about what happens with Italy so Prussia would use the Austrians getting the Austrian Netherlands to get more of Westphalia and try to eat more of Saxony but I don't see them gaining much more than IOTL.

So you think it would be acceptable for other great powers that Austria gets Belgium while everything else stays pretty much the same? That's interesting. IMO not trying to get Austrian Netherlands back was a mistake.

 

[Nuraghe]

There is no other place to take away land from the Habsburgs than Germany, they got nothing out of Poland and no GP truly cared about what happens with Italy so Prussia would use the Austrians getting the Austrian Netherlands to get more of Westphalia and try to eat more of Saxony but I don't see them gaining much more than IOTL.

While I quite agree with your opinion, there are only two things that in reality I would like to point out, the first is that Austria had no interest in having to protect and garrison a region so far from its central nucleus and also easily exposed to an invasion ( as the 18th century has amply demonstrated several times, it was mostly a waste of resources for the Habsburgs, they would rather get Bavaria than be able to get Belgium back ) that's why Vienna preferred to obtain possessions as contiguous as possible to each other and in "easier" areas to control ( Italy ) where the only competition was precisely France ( no one wanted to see it gain influence in the region again ) and the smaller states, therefore the Austrian policy of that period would have to be completely changed

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

So you think it would be acceptable for other great powers that Austria gets Belgium while everything else stays pretty much the same? That's interesting. IMO not trying to get Austrian Netherlands back was a mistake.

The Austrian didn't want it because it would bring conflict with France and that would have a lot of negative effects since 1861 and/or 1866 you would have a front there and it would be very bad for Austria.

 

[vn6]

The Austrian didn't want it because it would bring conflict with France and that would have a lot of negative effects since 1861 and/or 1866 you would have a front there and it would be very bad for Austria.

I understand all these reasons but revenue from rich Belgium would certainly be helpful due to Austria's colossal debt. Plus they always might exchange Belgium for other territory, e.g. give it to Grand Duke of Tuscany and Duke of Modena in exchange for their duchies, forming a contignous block of land in Italy.

 

[AsukaEMP]

Lombardy was, just like the Southern Netherlands, part of the Habsburg realm already before the Napoleon Wars. So it being given back to them was not some form of compensation. As for Venice it had been Austrian for a while during the Napoleonic Wars and there wasn't any interest in restoring old Italian republics, and there wasn't anybody else to actually give the land to. Furthermore one of the unspoken principles of the Congress was always to strengthen the major powers.

Austria being "compensated" for the loss of the Southern Netherlands with Italian territories doesn't seem to really have been a thing, this is confusing correlation with causation. Losing the Southern Netherlands wasn't a prerequisite for gaining Venice or being restored in Lombardy... So yes, Austria would most likely have looked basically the same as it did IOTL, just with the addition of the Southern Netherlands.

The biggest problem is actually making the Austrians interested in keeping it. They had already come to the conclusion that they no longer wanted the Southern Netherlands before the war was over so you'd need them to have changed their mind by 1812 or so at the latest.
Personally I think the most likely alternative to their OTL decision would be transferring it to an ATL cadet line, for example if Francis' second oldest son (Franz Joseph) hadn't died in 1807 he'd have been a potential candidate.​

 

[vn6]

Lombardy was, just like the Southern Netherlands, part of the Habsburg realm already before the Napoleon Wars. So it being given back to them was not some form of compensation. As for Venice it had been Austrian for a while during the Napoleonic Wars and there wasn't any interest in restoring old Italian republics, and there wasn't anybody else to actually give the land to. Furthermore one of the unspoken principles of the Congress was always to strengthen the major powers.

Austria being "compensated" for the loss of the Southern Netherlands with Italian territories doesn't seem to really have been a thing, this is confusing correlation with causation. Losing the Southern Netherlands wasn't a prerequisite for gaining Venice or being restored in Lombardy... So yes, Austria would most likely have looked basically the same as it did IOTL, just with the addition of the Southern Netherlands.

The biggest problem is actually making the Austrians interested in keeping it. They had already come to the conclusion that they no longer wanted the Southern Netherlands before the war was over so you'd need them to have changed their mind by 1812 or so at the latest.
Personally I think the most likely alternative to their OTL decision would be transferring it to an ATL cadet line, for example if Francis' second oldest son (Franz Joseph) hadn't died in 1807 he'd have been a potential candidate.​

Do you think that Austrians getting Belgium, then exchanging it for other territory is plausible? Maybe such idea would make them interested. Out of potential candidates for exchange I see the Italian duchies or some German states (probably not Bavaria though as it' a top big after Napoleonic period).

 

[Nuraghe]

I understand all these reasons but revenue from rich Belgium would certainly be helpful due to Austria's colossal debt. Plus they always might exchange Belgium for other territory, e.g. give it to Grand Duke of Tuscany and Duke of Modena in exchange for their duchies, forming a contignous block of land in Italy.

In reality to allow Austria to hold Modena, it would be enough to simply convince Metternich to listen to the complaints of the people of Modena regarding their sovereign ( given that both in 1821 and in 1831 they expelled their duke ) they had asked Vienna several times for permission to join to the Lombardy - Veneto kingdom, but Klemens was extremely hesitant to shake the Status Quo and support the demands of a group of rebels ( for fear of legitimizing this type of maneuver, especially after the events of the July revolution ) but it must be said that in support people like Radetzky and Kolowrat had supported Modena's requests

 

[walmart]

Would it be possible for Austria to be granted additional lands in exchange for retaining Belgium?

 

[vn6]

In reality to allow Austria to hold Modena, it would be enough to simply convince Metternich to listen to the complaints of the people of Modena regarding their sovereign ( given that both in 1821 and in 1831 they expelled their duke ) they had asked Vienna several times for permission to join to the Lombardy - Veneto kingdom, but Klemens was extremely hesitant to shake the Status Quo and support the demands of a group of rebels ( for fear of legitimizing this type of maneuver, especially after the events of the July revolution ) but it must be said that in support people like Radetzky and Kolowrat had supported Modena's requests

That's interesting, I've heard that the duke was very unpopular but didn't know that the citizens of Modena wanted to be part of Lombardy-Venetia.

However, like Metternich, I belive that listening to rebels would be dangerous precedent. So maybe some middle option - duke of Modena formally in power but de facto completely powerless and the duchy incorporated into Austria (with common military, common minister of foreign affairs etc.).

Aparat from that, what do you think about the exchange scheme with Tuscany?

 

[Nuraghe]

That's interesting, I've heard that the duke was very unpopular but didn't know that the citizens of Modena wanted to be part of Lombardy-Venetia.

However, like Metternich, I belive that listening to rebels would be dangerous precedent. So maybe some middle option - duke of Modena formally in power but de facto completely powerless and the duchy incorporated into Austria (with common military, common minister of foreign affairs etc.).

Aparat from that, what do you think about the exchange scheme with Tuscany?

In reality, if the acquisition of Modena could easily go unnoticed among the great powers, trying to do the same operation with Tuscany would be much more complicated, for a series of reasons, the first being that the other regional players would not be not at all happy with this ( in particular the Two Sicilies, Savoy and Rome, with France and Great Britain in the background, which could begin to worry about a total Austrian hegemony in the region ) secondly the Tuscans themselves are quite satisfied with the governed by them, therefore they would not approve of a possible replacement of the state elite ( with a local majority ) with people chosen by Vienna, finally this entity would vaguely recall the Napoleonic Kingdom of Italy, and could cause an escalation of nationalistic sentiment which would no longer be controllable, with possible negative effects for everyone

P.s
Now I know for sure that a similar idea was proposed several times in the 1700s, it saw the Wittelsbachs and the Lorraines in turn, who in exchange for renouncing their ancestral territories ( in favor of Austria / France ) would take control of the Grand Duchy ( or even the kingdom of Naples ) but due to various problems during the negotiations nothing ever came of it, to understand, in the same period the Pope had offered JFES ( the Old Pretender ) the government of Emilia ( uniting the Duchies of Modena and Parma in just one ), as a way to find a compromise between the Bourbons and the Habsburgs regarding the control of Italy

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

Honestly keeping Belgium under the Catholic Habsburgs is great for containing France while also allowing Austria to better uphold its position in Germany. And rather than giving the land to the Netherlands, it could have been added to the German Confederation as well. Emperor Franz could have given the land to his brother Archduke Charles, giving him some recognition and prestige as the "King of Belgium." Historically Belgium was quite conservative and heavily Catholic, so Charles would have a strong base of support, and with the industrial revolution going it would be well positioned as a regional player and influential economic heavyweight in Germany.

France actually might not choose to try and expand within the continent (for now) and might instead focus on colonial endeavors possibly as a rival to Britain once again.

 

[kasumigenx]

There was a plan to Swap Bavaria with Belgium.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Honestly keeping Belgium under the Catholic Habsburgs is great for containing France while also allowing Austria to better uphold its position in Germany. And rather than giving the land to the Netherlands, it could have been added to the German Confederation as well. Emperor Franz could have given the land to his brother Archduke Charles, giving him some recognition and prestige as the "King of Belgium." Historically Belgium was quite conservative and heavily Catholic, so Charles would have a strong base of support, and with the industrial revolution going it would be well positioned as a regional player and influential economic heavyweight in Germany.

France actually might not choose to try and expand within the continent (for now) and might instead focus on colonial endeavors possibly as a rival to Britain once again.

I think that this would mean more competition with France if anything, France would have all interests in conquering Belgium and Austria has very few ways of defending it.

 

[vn6]

In reality, if the acquisition of Modena could easily go unnoticed among the great powers, trying to do the same operation with Tuscany would be much more complicated, for a series of reasons, the first being that the other regional players would not be not at all happy with this ( in particular the Two Sicilies, Savoy and Rome, with France and Great Britain in the background, which could begin to worry about a total Austrian hegemony in the region ) secondly the Tuscans themselves are quite satisfied with the governed by them, therefore they would not approve of a possible replacement of the state elite ( with a local majority ) with people chosen by Vienna, finally this entity would vaguely recall the Napoleonic Kingdom of Italy, and could cause an escalation of nationalistic sentiment which would no longer be controllable, with possible negative effects for everyone

P.s
Now I know for sure that a similar idea was proposed several times in the 1700s, it saw the Wittelsbachs and the Lorraines in turn, who in exchange for renouncing their ancestral territories ( in favor of Austria / France ) would take control of the Grand Duchy ( or even the kingdom of Naples ) but due to various problems during the negotiations nothing ever came of it, to understand, in the same period the Pope had offered JFES ( the Old Pretender ) the government of Emilia ( uniting the Duchies of Modena and Parma in just one ), as a way to find a compromise between the Bourbons and the Habsburgs regarding the control of Italy

So you think the acquistion of Tuscany in exchange for Belgium isn't possible? I understand all the reasons against it but some of them can be avoided (e.g. local elite might still be in power in the duchy under Austria).

Also if all of Napoleonic Kingdom of Italy is united under Austria, would the nationalism really be a threat? People would get partially unified Italy which they might like.

 

[vn6]

I think that this would mean more competition with France if anything, France would have all interests in conquering Belgium and Austria has very few ways of defending it.

Belgium would probably be included in German Confederation (as it was part of HRE) so also Prussia and other states would be obliged to defend it.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Belgium would probably be included in German Confederation (as it was part of HRE) so also Prussia and other states would be obliged to defend it.

The problem is that France can ally itself with Prussia and we have the Brothers' War with France on the Prussian side