AHC: Apartheid South Africa survives into the 21st Century

[ElectedToRead]

As per the title, is there a plausible scenario wherein apartheid South Africa continues to survive well into the 21st century, in the age of digital information?

ASA doesn't have to be economically healthy either, although if you can think of a scenario where it makes sense I tip my hat to you. I think a few factors might play, such ws the USSR / Comintern surving as a world power and the Cold War continuing due to right-wing sentiment in the West, rendering SA a "necessary evil". Possibly have a more extremist ANC burn bridges via indiscriminate attacks which cause foreign / civillian casualties too.

 

[Garrison]

The only way that happens is if the Cold War drags on. South Africa was able to survive because it was getting tacit support from western governments as a bastion against Communism. Once the USSR collapsed support South Africa made no sense strategically and was a political embarrassment, so the writing was on the wall by the beginning of the 1990s. Obviously if the Cold War continues the world is so different its hard to see what shape South Africa would take without figuring out why the USSR and the Warsaw Pact keep going.

 

[Lalli]

The only way that happens is if the Cold War drags on. South Africa was able to survive because it was getting tacit support from western governments as a bastion against Communism. Once the USSR collapsed support South Africa made no sense strategically and was a political embarrassment, so the writing was on the wall by the beginning of the 1990s. Obviously if the Cold War continues the world is so different its hard to see what shape South Africa would take without figuring out why the USSR and the Warsaw Pact keep going.

Apartheid system was pretty unpopular even on western nations so not sure if even Americans are going to tolerate SA very long. You probably need too really pro-Soviet ANC or then make ANC much weaker.

 

[walmart]

You need a major power backer that is either indifferent or supportive of Apartheid.

 

[Declan]

The only way I can think off the top of my head is that South Africa exists as a rump state centered around the Cape, having ceded basically all of Eastern SA in order to decrease the number of non whites per white person, and thus inject some stability to the apartheid government.

 

[Borealian]

If instead of Mandela the anti appartide forces had a violent (preferably comunist adn soviet alliend) leader there woud be far les support for an end of apartheid even in sud africa. have them commite mass murders insted of sabotage, if possible even against people from the west. If the resistence is realy umpopular in the west the apartheid sistem coud resist et least untile the late 90s/early 2000. keaping apartheid afther the end of the cold war is harder but if the white population is radical enoug south africa coud trasform in a rump isolated state, stil rhodesia had a similar situation and the state colapsed even erlier so maby you only get an uglier and more violent revolution in south africa in the 90s

 

[Hannibal The Bannable]

If instead of Mandela the anti appartide forces had a violent (preferably comunist adn soviet alliend) leader there woud be far les support for an end of apartheid even in sud africa. have them commite mass murders insted of sabotage, if possible even against people from the west. If the resistence is realy umpopular in the west the apartheid sistem coud resist et least untile the late 90s/early 2000. keaping apartheid afther the end of the cold war is harder but if the white population is radical enoug south africa coud trasform in a rump isolated state, stil rhodesia had a similar situation and the state colapsed even erlier so maby you only get an uglier and more violent revolution in south africa in the 90s

The Anti Apartheid movement was fairly violent. Its just that the South African government was very effective at suppressing their activities

Apartheid system was pretty unpopular even on western nations so not sure if even Americans are going to tolerate SA very long. You probably need too really pro-Soviet ANC or then make ANC much weaker.

No chance the Soviets will tolerate Apartheid. Would alienate their communist allies in Africa( and to a lesser extent, Asia).

 

[Pangur]

Apartheid system was pretty unpopular even on western nations so not sure if even Americans are going to tolerate SA very long. You probably need too really pro-Soviet ANC or then make ANC much weaker.

What about a Soviet naval base in Mozambique by 1975?

 

[Declan]

The only way that happens is if the Cold War drags on. South Africa was able to survive because it was getting tacit support from western governments as a bastion against Communism. Once the USSR collapsed support South Africa made no sense strategically and was a political embarrassment, so the writing was on the wall by the beginning of the 1990s. Obviously if the Cold War continues the world is so different its hard to see what shape South Africa would take without figuring out why the USSR and the Warsaw Pact keep going.

The relations between South Africa and the West were not good at all in the 80s during the height of the Cold War. It would only get worse if an intransigent continues Apartheid in spite of the Cold War. South Africa would have become a bizarro Albania. Both countries cut off from what would be their natural ideological Cold War allies as if they were on the opposite camp. But where Albania's isolation was self-inflicted, the Western countries would collectively isolate and cut off South Africa.

You probably need too really pro-Soviet ANC or then make ANC much weaker.

While the ANC was the most popular group among black South Africans against Apartheid. It's important to note that they were not the only ones. South Africa continuing Apartheid would only radicalize more blacks. Some radicalized people could form their own groups focused only on opposing the government without the albatross of being too pro-Soviet.

You need a major power backer that is either indifferent or supportive of Apartheid.

The only way that would extend it is if there was a major power willing to put boots on the ground to prop up the government when things do boil over. The last country that would have done that would be the UK; and that ended when South Africa left the Commonwealth.

What about a Soviet naval base in Mozambique by 1975?

Too soo after independence. Plus the civil war would make the Soviet cautious about rushing to build a port unless the situation stabilizes significantly.

 

[AlexanderDragon]

it is certaintly possible with a post 1900 POD but not with a post 1945 one

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

Continuing the Cold War is the best option.

Otherwise, it depends if by "apartheid" you mean white minority rule, or the full program implemented by the National Party after taking power in 1949.

Ironically, if you mean white minority rule, the best option is to keep the United Party in power. It was the National government that stripped the Coloreds of their voting rights, probably because they were United Party supporters. Removing a pool of United Party voters was great for the National Party. If your objective is to retain white minority rule, assimilating the Colored population as "white" effectively doubles the white population.

Other than the Cold War continuing, they essentially need to expand the percentage of the population benefiting from apartheid, while making Afrikaners the dominant element in that coalition. Another alternative, which some National politicians explored, would be to co-opt portions of the Black population. The main way to do this was to set up the homelands that they did set up IOTL, but actually give them large and cohesive territories, and their leadership some voice in decisions for all of North Africa. In the mean time you make sure that the area around Johannesburg (gold mines) and Cape Town (specialized agriculture and trade) are firmly under central or white control, as well as other economically valuable places, while still being much more generous to the homeland areas and their elites. You also work to create a class of Black wealthy businessmen, who get government contracts and whose children can get places in white universities and government jobs. That co-opts a Black elite that will lose out if there is real Black majority rule and which will side with you. Again, they actually went some way towards implementing this.

Basically, divide and conquer. But its hard in practice for elites to do this. The Roman, British, and Turkish elites managed to do this consistently. But maybe that is why they erected large and long lasting empires and other elites couldn't do this.

 

[TunguskaStorm]

I just made a post about this (I promise I hadn't seen yours when I did 😅) but I personally think that while it's clear South Africa was bound for a mass upheaval by the mid-80s, two things could have massively changed the outcome. Having Mandela die in prison in the 80s and then having Botha not have a stroke to remain in power and continue his token reforms could have potentially lead to an outcome that would have preserved apartheid in practice, even if not de jure. The way I imagine it happening is through widespread civil and ethnic violence following Mandela's death, followed by increased support for apartheid among white South Africans as the anti-apartheid movement becomes more militant without Mandela. If this were to happen, I could see Botha resuming the practice of assigning native South Africans the citizenship of their respective bantustans and deporting them as such, in order to end the threat of uprisings in South Africa proper. As violence continued to escalate, I could see greater tensions among ethnic groups leading to more supporting independence of their bantustans, such as the Zulus, while Cape Coloureds and Asians become more accepting of the small reforms they were given compared to the perceived chaos ANC rule would bring, eventually occupying a roughly equal place in South African society among whites, and native Bantus still dispossessed of their citizenship and voting rights, allowed only to live in South Africa to work temporarily. Even with the end of the Cold War, South Africa may find new trading allies in the newly-free Eastern European nations to replace previous Western support, with South African diamonds finding their way to oligarchs in Russia and other Eastern Bloc nations and these nations trading Western goods back to South Africa as a mediary. South Africa also could have have attracted potentially thousands of new poor (white) immigrants from said Eastern Bloc states, especially ethnic Germans from the former Soviet Union who would have bolstered the white population of the country, either settling in Namibia or forming their own communities and assimilating into the Afrikaner majority. This could happen after Germany becomes more hesitant to accept immigrants, with South Africa attracting more over the 1990s as the civil conflict in the country settles down into a different, but similar status quo.

 

[Warthog]

Ah. This idea is back.

Link to the thread from just over a year ago

 

[Seandineen]

I just made a post about this (I promise I hadn't seen yours when I did 😅) but I personally think that while it's clear South Africa was bound for a mass upheaval by the mid-80s, two things could have massively changed the outcome. Having Mandela die in prison in the 80s and then having Botha not have a stroke to remain in power and continue his token reforms could have potentially lead to an outcome that would have preserved apartheid in practice, even if not de jure. The way I imagine it happening is through widespread civil and ethnic violence following Mandela's death, followed by increased support for apartheid among white South Africans as the anti-apartheid movement becomes more militant without Mandela. If this were to happen, I could see Botha resuming the practice of assigning native South Africans the citizenship of their respective bantustans and deporting them as such, in order to end the threat of uprisings in South Africa proper. As violence continued to escalate, I could see greater tensions among ethnic groups leading to more supporting independence of their bantustans, such as the Zulus, while Cape Coloureds and Asians become more accepting of the small reforms they were given compared to the perceived chaos ANC rule would bring, eventually occupying a roughly equal place in South African society among whites, and native Bantus still dispossessed of their citizenship and voting rights, allowed only to live in South Africa to work temporarily. Even with the end of the Cold War, South Africa may find new trading allies in the newly-free Eastern European nations to replace previous Western support, with South African diamonds finding their way to oligarchs in Russia and other Eastern Bloc nations and these nations trading Western goods back to South Africa as a mediary. South Africa also could have have attracted potentially thousands of new poor (white) immigrants from said Eastern Bloc states, especially ethnic Germans from the former Soviet Union who would have bolstered the white population of the country, either settling in Namibia or forming their own communities and assimilating into the Afrikaner majority. This could happen after Germany becomes more hesitant to accept immigrants, with South Africa attracting more over the 1990s as the civil conflict in the country settles down into a different, but similar status quo.

What if Botha is replaced by Chris Hennius, instead of FW?

 

[Warthog]

What if Botha is replaced by Chris Hennius, instead of FW?

Writing was already on the wall for the end of apartheid: the Dakar Dialogue had happened, and follow up talks were happening by the time PW died. PW had already met Mandela in 89.

Heunis was very much part of PW's attempts at minor reforms, and had some limited contact with ANC. He wasn't an extremist or a bitter einder, by Nat standards

 

[Seandineen]

No, he might have advocated longer coalition governments. He said the Swiss system of multiple presidents gave everyone some but no one total power.

 

[SirCecil]

Instead of changing South Africa I almost wonder if it'd be easier to change the West. A more racist Anglosphere would make apartheid look more attractive, or at least easier to overlook. A United States that retains legal segregation well into the 70's or even 80's is not particularly likely to sanction South Africa.

 

[Gukpard]

As per the title, is there a plausible scenario wherein apartheid South Africa continues to survive well into the 21st century, in the age of digital information?

ASA doesn't have to be economically healthy either, although if you can think of a scenario where it makes sense I tip my hat to you. I think a few factors might play, such ws the USSR / Comintern surving as a world power and the Cold War continuing due to right-wing sentiment in the West, rendering SA a "necessary evil". Possibly have a more extremist ANC burn bridges via indiscriminate attacks which cause foreign / civillian casualties too.

I'm over thin ice saying this, but I'm pretty sure that South Africa would try to position itself as a bastion of liberal progressivism in a similar way Israel does

 

[Declan]

Instead of changing South Africa I almost wonder if it'd be easier to change the West. A more racist Anglosphere would make apartheid look more attractive, or at least easier to overlook. A United States that retains legal segregation well into the 70's or even 80's is not particularly likely to sanction South Africa.

Don't think South Africa would make it across the 21st century mark in one piece still.

I'm over thin ice saying this, but I'm pretty sure that South Africa would try to position itself as a bastion of liberal progressivism in a similar way Israel does

It won't. Especially because the people who want to continue Apartheid would be the ones most opposed to it. Apartheid supporters were very conservative. So conservative were they that previous South African governments maimtained a ban on TV, decades after mass adoption in the west.

 

[Seandineen]

Easy, recruite, the Black power types. We aren't forcing you into white society, All free to live in their own seperate sections.

Instead of changing South Africa I almost wonder if it'd be easier to change the West. A more racist Anglosphere would make apartheid look more attractive, or at least easier to overlook. A United States that retains legal segregation well into the 70's or even 80's is not particularly likely to sanction South