Brazilian WI: the 1930 Revolution is a bloodier affair?

[Vinization]

While the 1930 Revolution absolutely deserves to be called such, due to the sheer scale of the change it unleashed, its name is also a bit deceptive in that it implies it was a bloodless event when it was anything but. Fierce battles were fought between the revolutionaries and supporters of the federal government, especially in Recife and Salvador, which were strongholds of the latter. Things were escalating fast, and both sides were preparing to fight a bloody, decisive battle in Itararé, on the border between the states of São Paulo and Paraná.

Fortunately, president Washington Luís was overthrown by a military coup before the battle took place. The junta that took his place allowed Getúlio Vargas to march into Rio de Janeiro without issue, after which they transferred power to him. Thus began the Vargas Era, which lasted until October 1945.

But what if Washington Luís wasn't deposed by the military, for whatever reason? What if the Battle of Itararé happened as expected, and the revolutionaries won? How different would Vargas' administration be, after he and his allies are forced to fight their way to Rio de Janeiro? I, for one, expect him to be highly authoritarian right from the get go - an Estado Novo seven years early. One thing is certain, the pre-1930 elites will be marginalized for good, unlike IOTL.

@Gukpard @Taunay @Guilherme Loureiro

 

[Mildtryth]

I'd say that the name doesn't really imply it was bloodless. Rather the opposite, really. What i usually heard in school on that regard is that it didn't really deserve to be called a revolution because it was "bloodless" and it didn't enact the sort of change it should.

 

[Arariboia Guamá]

I heard the Constitutionalist Revolt was pretty much 1930 Part 2. But I get the feeling a lot depends on which side you hear it from. Heard everything from "The Constitutionalists were freedom fighters" to "They were merely lackeys of the Oligarchs wanting to return to power". And even secessionist takes.

Which side the Navy would land? AFAIK the Navy has always been Monarchist. Was everyone purged after the Armada Revolt? If Washington Luis resists, what stops the navy from siding with the revolutionaries and pointing guns at Rio de Janeiro, again? Having the navy point guns at your capital while an enemy army comes at you... not going to be good.

Will São Paulo fight? Because if they do, this might pre-empt the Constitutionalist revolt.

How popular was Tenentismo among the navy?

How different would Vargas' administration be, after he and his allies are forced to fight their way to Rio de Janeiro? I, for one, expect him to be highly authoritarian right from the get go - an Estado Novo seven years early. One thing is certain, the pre-1930 elites will be marginalized for good, unlike IOTL.

Would the Military hand Vargas a dictatorship? There might be a price to this greater revolt and blood spilled to rule.

I think the pre-1930 elites wouldn't be entirely marginalized.
I would like to remind everyone that:
a) Pre-Vargas Brazil was literally ruled by a Para-Masonic Secret Society called Bucha Paulista.*
b) Vargas closed the Bucha down and got access to their member rolls, and said he wouldn't arrest them all because he wouldn't be able to rule the country if he arrested all those people.

Then again, if Vargas' army support is firmer, he might genuinely decide that he infact does not need all these people to rule the country, and just put military people in their place.

*NOT a conspiracy theory, this is accepted historical fact

 

[Vinization]

How popular was Tenentismo among the navy?

There was one guy named Protógenes Guimarães who was involved in the 1924 revolts (IIRC he planned to hijack a battleship and use it to bombard Rio de Janeiro), but other than him I don't know.

Would the Military hand Vargas a dictatorship? There might be a price to this greater revolt and blood spilled to rule.

They may not have a choice, depending on how the rank and file reacts.

Will São Paulo fight? Because if they do, this might pre-empt the Constitutionalist revolt.

It probably will, since all important officeholders there, including the governor, belonged to PRP (the party Vargas and co wanted to overthrow). On the other hand, the Democratic Party, a local party opposed to PRP which supported Vargas and João Pessoa in the 1930 election, may act as a fifth column, but I don't know how strong they are.

Having the navy point guns at your capital while an enemy army comes at you... not going to be good.

Washington Luís would probably resign if that happened. Even if that does happen, though, the situation will be significantly more radicalized than IOTL, due to all the blood shed in Itararé.

 

[Taunay]

But what if Washington Luís wasn't deposed by the military, for whatever reason? What if the Battle of Itararé happened as expected, and the revolutionaries won? How different would Vargas' administration be, after he and his allies are forced to fight their way to Rio de Janeiro? I, for one, expect him to be highly authoritarian right from the get go - an Estado Novo seven years early. One thing is certain, the pre-1930 elites will be marginalized for good, unlike IOTL.

@Gukpard @Taunay @Guilherme Loureiro

A more authoritarian Vargas regime earlier also means that many achievements of the 1934 Constitution (such as the female right to vote and secret elections) would never exist - or would exist later.
What matters more for me is how this regime will develop. Let's say that the regime lasts as long as the Estado Novo (8 years), meaning that come 1938 it is overthrown by the military (that's a VERY simplistic view of the internal developments of the Vargas era, I know), that means that Brazil returns (or more accurately, establishes) a democratic system right when WW2 is going to start. That means that the people themselves will be involved in choosing how Brazil will participate in the Second World War, instead of it being a top-down decision imposed by a dictatorship (which may be part of the reason why Brazilian participation in WW2 isn't as widely talked in international and national discourse).
However, there are many variables of a bloodier 1930 Revolution, like for example we could have anything from a more right-wing to more left-wing governments post-Vargas, depending on how the regime deals with the Communists and Integralists (would Vargas crack down earlier on those two groups, favour one of them or would the butterflies of this battle prevent these groups from even gaining prominence, instead the "mass movement" being simply absorbed into Varguism, making it as strong as Peronism still is in Argentina).
I honestly think that there are so many possibilities that you can create any scenario you want - either to wank or screw Brazil.

 

[Gukpard]

While the 1930 Revolution absolutely deserves to be called such, due to the sheer scale of the change it unleashed, its name is also a bit deceptive in that it implies it was a bloodless event when it was anything but. Fierce battles were fought between the revolutionaries and supporters of the federal government, especially in Recife and Salvador, which were strongholds of the latter. Things were escalating fast, and both sides were preparing to fight a bloody, decisive battle in Itararé, on the border between the states of São Paulo and Paraná.

Fortunately, president Washington Luís was overthrown by a military coup before the battle took place. The junta that took his place allowed Getúlio Vargas to march into Rio de Janeiro without issue, after which they transferred power to him. Thus began the Vargas Era, which lasted until October 1945.

But what if Washington Luís wasn't deposed by the military, for whatever reason? What if the Battle of Itararé happened as expected, and the revolutionaries won? How different would Vargas' administration be, after he and his allies are forced to fight their way to Rio de Janeiro? I, for one, expect him to be highly authoritarian right from the get go - an Estado Novo seven years early. One thing is certain, the pre-1930 elites will be marginalized for good, unlike IOTL.

@Gukpard @Taunay @Guilherme Loureiro

I planned a TL on that, I even sent you the idea years ago

I'd say that the name doesn't really imply it was bloodless. Rather the opposite, really. What i usually heard in school on that regard is that it didn't really deserve to be called a revolution because it was "bloodless" and it didn't enact the sort of change it should.

My teacher told me that only communists can make revolutions

Yeah, thousands died, people should take more attention to the sheer scale of it and also the overwhelming popular support it had

I heard the Constitutionalist Revolt was pretty much 1930 Part 2. But I get the feeling a lot depends on which side you hear it from. Heard everything from "The Constitutionalists were freedom fighters" to "They were merely lackeys of the Oligarchs wanting to return to power". And even secessionist takes.

Which side the Navy would land? AFAIK the Navy has always been Monarchist. Was everyone purged after the Armada Revolt? If Washington Luis resists, what stops the navy from siding with the revolutionaries and pointing guns at Rio de Janeiro, again? Having the navy point guns at your capital while an enemy army comes at you... not going to be good.

Will São Paulo fight? Because if they do, this might pre-empt the Constitutionalist revolt.

How popular was Tenentismo among the navy?


Would the Military hand Vargas a dictatorship? There might be a price to this greater revolt and blood spilled to rule.

I think the pre-1930 elites wouldn't be entirely marginalized.
I would like to remind everyone that:
a) Pre-Vargas Brazil was literally ruled by a Para-Masonic Secret Society called Bucha Paulista.*
b) Vargas closed the Bucha down and got access to their member rolls, and said he wouldn't arrest them all because he wouldn't be able to rule the country if he arrested all those people.

Then again, if Vargas' army support is firmer, he might genuinely decide that he infact does not need all these people to rule the country, and just put military people in their place.

*NOT a conspiracy theory, this is accepted historical fact

The navy is conservative and loyalist, it sided with the monarchists before since they were the conservatives and the right side, in 1930 however it didn't had the opportunity for naval battles.

A more authoritarian Vargas regime earlier also means that many achievements of the 1934 Constitution (such as the female right to vote and secret elections) would never exist - or would exist later.
What matters more for me is how this regime will develop. Let's say that the regime lasts as long as the Estado Novo (8 years), meaning that come 1938 it is overthrown by the military (that's a VERY simplistic view of the internal developments of the Vargas era, I know), that means that Brazil returns (or more accurately, establishes) a democratic system right when WW2 is going to start. That means that the people themselves will be involved in choosing how Brazil will participate in the Second World War, instead of it being a top-down decision imposed by a dictatorship (which may be part of the reason why Brazilian participation in WW2 isn't as widely talked in international and national discourse).
However, there are many variables of a bloodier 1930 Revolution, like for example we could have anything from a more right-wing to more left-wing governments post-Vargas, depending on how the regime deals with the Communists and Integralists (would Vargas crack down earlier on those two groups, favour one of them or would the butterflies of this battle prevent these groups from even gaining prominence, instead the "mass movement" being simply absorbed into Varguism, making it as strong as Peronism still is in Argentina).
I honestly think that there are so many possibilities that you can create any scenario you want - either to wank or screw Brazil.

Well, my input is that after Itararé everything is over, so the question now is when the government will fall, not if. The old republic was a dying carcass at that point and without São Paulo they can't last with Rio. Most likely you would see either the government in Rio surrendering as the junta that deposed Washington Luís did (contrary to what people thing the junta was not pro Vargas, it was a third faction, they wanted to take power by themselves and Vargas sent them an ultimatum that they accepted), or you have an assault in the capital that gonna leave thousands more dead and some infrastructure to be rebuilt, think of 1924 but in the capital.

I agree with Taunay that it can go in any direction. In my TL Vargas end as a left wing quasi dictator like Rafael Franco and rules until retiring after WWII. You can have him try to make a stratocracy or anything your heart wishes, hes Vargas after all.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Big problem with having a bloodier 1930 is the Army(the institution which mattered for this) didn't really want to fight - when the military heads saw the lower officers(from Major downwards) wouldn't obey orders to make a stand, the calculus became that deposing Washington Luís would give a stronger bargaining position to them. To come down to a fight, the state police forces(especially the Força Pública de São Paulo) would have to get involved.